Ukraine Is Lost?

Last May, I wrote about the apparent loss of Ukraine to Russia that the West apparently deemed unworthy of defending. I lamented that Ukraine would have to fight for their independence alone and without the divine support of the United States in spite of the fact that we sat on their doorstep through the auspices of NATO in Western Europe. Belatedly, support seems to be forthcoming as reported in the New York Times recently under the headline, U.S. Considers Supplying Arms To Ukraine Forces.

Amazingly, a situation report was drawn up by a conglomeration of foreign policy think tanks such as the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution and the Center For A New American Security that illustrated the need for increased military spending, both lethal and non-lethal, by the United States as well as the EU in support of Ukrainian sovereignty in the face of a growing Russian involvement in the battle over the future of Ukraine.

Last December, President Obama signed into law the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 (HR 5859), outlining additional aid for Ukraine and additional sanctions against Russia for violating an earlier ceasefire agreement arranged in Minsk on September 5th of 2014. The situation report by the Chicago Council and company goes further however, requesting drones, anti-drone tech and light armor anti-tank missiles for the Ukrainian armed forces. According to the report, most of the Ukrainian casualties (up to 70%) have been by drone-directed artillery support the Russians have given directly to the "separatists" that are loyal to Moscow. On top of this, Moscow just last week has authorized heavy weapons such as T72 and T80 tanks, a substantial force multiplier, to be used by Russian backed separatists against Ukrainian forces. The report also recommended a substantial increase of funds from the already authorized $350 million dollars in aid to be raised to a billion dollars per annum for the next several years in support of Kiev.

The question remains: is this enough to stop the Russians? Russia has the power to squash Ukraine if it wants. Does it have the political will to weather the political ramifications of such a dastardly deed? Really, that is the only thing keeping the Russians from an all out invasion of Ukraine at this point. However, if American military forces are landed in Ukraine, regardless of size, then by this action alone would prevent an immediate conventional military invasion by Russia of Ukraine. Separatists actions, however, is another thing entirely. That being said, a United States military landing in Ukraine may not even be conceivable due to past political obligations that prevents Western troops from being deployed inside Ukraine. Known as the Budapest Memorandum, this was an assurance, as opposed to a treaty, between Russia, the United States and Great Britain to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine if Kiev signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. They held a substantial number of nuclear warheads left over from the Cold War on their lands though operationally the Russians still controlled them. Ukraine did in fact sign this treaty in 1994.

So, now here we are in 2015 and Ukraine wants to join the West and Russia is supporting so called separatists to meld Ukraine back into the Russian political sphere. We stand on the abyss of a full scale conventional war that Europe has not seen since World War II. Who will blink? Who will back down? This is a delicate time that could result in desperate measures by both sides if one side goes too far. Perhaps the downing of the Malaysian airliner in Eastern Ukraine by Russian back separatists last year is an bloody omen of things to come? It certainly shows us how things can quickly escalate beyond anyone's control if this wound is left to fester for too long.