Double Eagle

With last Sunday's Crimea vote to return to Russia that was engineered recently by Vladimir Putin, the West has been completely upstaged and surprised by the rapidity of the Russian state to seize the moment. The West led by a weakened and docile United States, has flailed impotently while Moscow has moved its chess pieces expertly on the board by invoking its rightful place over a vital and strategic port city on the Black Sea that was once an important Ukrainian asset. Now, in one fell swoop, Crimea is now in the hands of the Russians. The Ukrainians, after overthrowing their Russian savant, the ex-Ukrainian Premier Victor Yanukovych, by marching and occupying the main square in Kiev, now are starring down the abyss of war as Mother Russia masses her troops on their northern and eastern doorstep. The world now awaits the next moves between East and West as the battle lines are drawn over the bread basket of Europe.

 To be fair, the Russians already occupied much of the Crimean Peninsula before last Sunday, however, they simply took the title deed from Ukraine, given to the Ukrainians by a drunk Nikita Khrushchev back in '56, and with it now back in the hands of the Russians, have declared to the entire world by a hastily arranged plebiscite, that they and only they are now the true rulers of this piece of naval real estate so vital to Russian national security and interest. The question now looms before us: what else do they want? Is the rest of Ukraine now up for grabs and can anyone do anything about it? Will Ukraine also find out, much like Georgia did several years ago, that when push (or should I say putsch) comes to shove, the West will do nothing and allow weaker states to be bullied into submission by their overbearing Russian overlords?

The Baltic states including Poland have recently announced the arrival of some American military assets in the form of F-15 and F-16 Fighter wings to their countries to remind Moscow that they are firmly rooted in the West and must not be tampered with by a hungry Russian state bent on subverting their relations with the United States and Western Europe. In many ways, Poland can now say to President Obama - we told you so! Under President Bush and Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld back in 2006, Poland and the Czech Republic were given assurances of American protection by incorporating those nations directly in a missile defense shield stationed on their home soils. But then the Democrat administration of Obama came along two years later and dismantled this defense posture stating that a Russian "re-set" was the order of the day and missile defense was more of a testicular reminder of a bygone era. The Russians couldn't have agreed more. Now, Poland smiles to itself as Obama looks like a kid caught urinating in the bushes as the Russians clamor for additional parcels of Ukrainian soil with Moldova and Belarus in its cross-hairs. Funny how history keeps repeating itself.

The only way out of this debacle is for hard American military assets, say an F-15 fighter wing, to be transferred directly to Ukraine, before any outbreak of hostilities by the Russians seals the Ukrainians to a fate they least desire. If the Russians should attack first or make a sudden military venture into Ukrainian territory outside of Crimea then I'm afraid the West has lost Ukraine. The United States will not fight the Russians and they will not fight us. Which is imperative that someone, preferably us, make the first move and do it quickly. Events are very fluid even as I write this post and anything can happen. I suppose, we could support the Ukrainians with direct military aid and let them fight for their independence while we cover for them at the United Nations and in other political and economic institutions. However, war is the least desirable outcome and has far reaching consequences that very few can predict.

Oh, by the way, this August will be the 100th anniversary of World War One. And it started because the Russians mobilized their army and didn't back down.